any idea when in earths history dune falls?

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any idea when in earths history dune falls?

Postby distrans » 31 Dec 2017 19:23

mention of the bene gesserit breeding program going on for thousands of generations hardly puts a minimum on it...

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Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

Postby georgiedenbro » 02 Jan 2018 10:37

Dune takes place 10,191 years after the jihad, and if I recall previous discussions of calculations the jihad takes place around 10,000 years from now.
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Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

Postby Freakzilla » 03 Jan 2018 10:08

Our best clue, IMO, comes from Dune Appendix II: The Religion of Dune

There is a fifth force which shaped religious belief, but its effect is so
universal and profound that it deserves to stand alone.
This is, of course, space travel -- and in any discussion of religion, it
deserves to be written thus:
SPACE TRAVEL!
Mankind's movement through deep space placed a unique stamp on religion
during the one hundred and ten centuries that preceded the Butlerian Jihad.


Depends on what you consider "deep space". Some would say that would be interstellar travel. Some would argue that Voyager has left our solar system so that counts.

So, 11,000 years after that is the Butlerian Jihad (201 BG - 108 BG) and The events of Dune begin in 10,191 AG. So that's what... 21,392 years from whenever we begin deep space travel.
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Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

Postby ᴶᵛᵀᴬ » 03 Jan 2018 17:31

Freakzilla wrote:
So, 11,000 years after that is the Butlerian Jihad (201 BG - 108 BG) and The events of Dune begin in 10,191 AG. So that's what... 21,392 years from whenever we begin deep space travel.


The Space Age is generally considered to have begun with Sputnik (1957).

1957 + 21,392 =
1957 + 11,000 + 201 + 10,191 = 23,349



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    Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

    Postby Omphalos » 04 Jan 2018 10:35

    ᴶᵛᵀᴬ wrote:
    Freakzilla wrote:
    So, 11,000 years after that is the Butlerian Jihad (201 BG - 108 BG) and The events of Dune begin in 10,191 AG. So that's what... 21,392 years from whenever we begin deep space travel.


    The Space Age is generally considered to have begun with Sputnik (1957).

    1957 + 21,392 =
    1957 + 11,000 + 201 + 10,191 = 23,349





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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby georgiedenbro » 04 Jan 2018 11:45

      I was never quite sure what "deep space travel" meant but upon reflection I think we might take "man's movement through deep space" to mean that it marks the time when human beings began to traverse interstellar distances. For that to occur I guess we'd need better technology than we have now - either something much faster than rockets, or else at least a cryo/sleeper unit that took a long time to get a few light years away.
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Omphalos » 05 Jan 2018 10:30

      Deep space just means outer space, which is defined typically as outside of Earth's atmosphere, or outside of the inner planet's orbit (past Mars). Modern cosmologists do stick with the second meaning. the first was a pre-space age definition. Dune was written prior to '69, but during the space age, so I would guess Herbert meant the latter.

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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Freakzilla » 05 Jan 2018 10:43

      So, a long, long time from now...
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby ᴶᵛᵀᴬ » 06 Jan 2018 22:35

      Omphalos wrote:Deep space just means outer space, which is defined typically as outside of Earth's atmosphere, or outside of the inner planet's orbit (past Mars)



      From Wikipedia :

      Deep space exploration

      Deep space exploration (or deep-space exploration) is the branch of astronomy, astronautics and space technology that is involved with exploring the distant regions of outer space. Physical exploration of space is conducted both by human spaceflights (deep-space astronautics) and by robotic spacecraft.

      Outer space

      There is no definite altitude above the Earth's surface where outer space begins. However, the Kármán line, at an altitude of 100 km (62 mi) above sea level, is conventionally used as the start of outer space in space treaties and for aerospace records keeping. The framework for international space law was established by the Outer Space Treaty, which entered into force on 10 October 1967. This treaty precludes any claims of national sovereignty and permits all states to freely explore outer space. Despite the drafting of UN resolutions for the peaceful uses of outer space, anti-satellite weapons have been tested in Earth orbit.

      Kármán line

      The Kármán line lies at an altitude of 100 km above the Earth's sea level, and commonly represents the boundary between the Earth's atmosphere and outer space.This definition is accepted by the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI), which is an international standard-setting and record-keeping body for aeronautics and astronautics. The line is named after Theodore von Kármán (1881–1963), a Hungarian American engineer and physicist, who was active primarily in aeronautics and astronautics.

      «Where space begins…can actually be determined by the speed of the space vehicle and its altitude above the earth.
      Consider, for instance, the record flight of Captain Iven Carl Kincheloe Jr. (...) Kincheloe flew 2000 miles per hour at 126,000 feet. At this altitude and speed, aerodynamic lift still carries 98 per cent of the weight of the plane, and only two per cent is carried by centrifugal force. (...) But at 300,000 feet, this relationship is reversed because there is no longer any air to contribute lift: only centrifugal force prevails.
      This is certainly a physical boundary, where aerodynamics stops and astronautics begins, and so I thought why should it not also be a jurisdictional boundary? Haley has kindly called it the Kármán Jurisdictional Line. Below this line space belongs to each country. Above this level there would be free space
      . »
      -- Theodore von Kármán /ed. by Lee Edson
      The Wind and Beyond (1967 posth.), p. 343

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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Freakzilla » 07 Jan 2018 11:24

      Moon landing then?
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby georgiedenbro » 08 Jan 2018 11:28

      Freakzilla wrote:Moon landing then?


      Since the moon landing didn't radically affect human culture I'd say he meant something else. We could suppose a Mars/moon colony might be the start, but even then it doesn't feel right to me. The idea behind a shifting view of man in the universe, to me, would stem from the dissolution of the idea that humanity is massively nested all in one cradle. Even if a scant few humans colonize Mars that wouldn't affect the vast majority of humanity still living on Earth and seeing Earth as the home of the species. The 'Marsies' would initially be seen as a fringe group rather than the future of the species. Read the appendix entry again regarding what "deep space" means:

      Mankind's movement through deep space placed a unique stamp on religion during the one hundred and ten centuries that preceded the Butlerian Jihad. To begin with, early space travel, although widespread, was largely unregulated, slow, and uncertain, and, before the Guild monopoly, was accomplished by a hodgepodge of methods. The first space experiences, poorly communicated and subject to extreme distortion, were a wild inducement to mystical speculation.


      We're not even close to having a hodgepodge of methods (we have only one, rockets) and what we can currently do would never induce 'mystical speculation'. The only item here that may soon fit is the notion that space travel is largely unregulated (Space X) but it's not yet at the point where that means very much. To me the 'mystical speculation' bit is the most important because this is a chapter on religion. In order for people to make such speculations in regards space travel I believe the nature of the travel itself would have to employ techniques that challenge a colloquial understanding of the universe. For instance, a jump drive would challenge a colloquial notion of what "space" or "distance" mean; folding space would challenge the notion of who should be messing with creation; a warp drive would challenge the notion of the laws of physics. All of these, or other techniques, would seem like magic to many people and would create a stir in the general worldview of reality (much like relativity did). I think that for this section to make sense it should be understood to imply that this phase will begin when we've made the next major leap ahead in engineering/physics. It would probably have to be as significant as the atomic age was in terms of it altering the general sense of reality.
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Freakzilla » 08 Jan 2018 18:28

      Well then, we can't accurately put a specific number on it then. However, considering Dune was written during the height of the Space Race, I'll chose to use that. How long is "the begining" of 110 centuries?
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby distrans » 09 Jan 2018 23:00

      heard a speaker once who was commenting about the apparent lack of other intelligent alien species say that it should only take a civilization which has suscessfully planted a colony across an intersteller distance another 5000 to colonize the rest of its own galaxy

      is the dune universe intergalactic?

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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Omphalos » 10 Jan 2018 12:15

      georgiedenbro wrote:
      Since the moon landing didn't radically affect human culture I'd say he meant something else.


      You're kidding, right?

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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby georgiedenbro » 10 Jan 2018 13:10

      Omphalos wrote:
      georgiedenbro wrote:
      Since the moon landing didn't radically affect human culture I'd say he meant something else.


      You're kidding, right?


      I think it was a major event within culture, i.e. as a social phenomenon, maybe in the same category as the cuban missile crisis, JFK assassination, Vietnam war, Watergate, and so forth. But did it significantly change how people lived and saw themselves within the universe? Did it create new religions or instigate re-evaluation of the current ones? Did it change the identity of humanity or make us rethink our values? I would say no to all of those. It was an important milestone, got some people to realize how small we all are, but I don't look at pre-1969 humanity and post-1969 and note some major difference. Sadly my general report would be that little has changed despite all the events that we might think ought to have changed us. If anything I'd say the Vietnam war had a massively greater impact on the American psyche than the moon landing did. I think that war really did change the character of American mentality, although not so for the human race as a whole, and in any case not in terms of a new spiritualism.
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Omphalos » 11 Jan 2018 12:23

      georgiedenbro wrote:
      Omphalos wrote:
      georgiedenbro wrote:
      Since the moon landing didn't radically affect human culture I'd say he meant something else.


      You're kidding, right?


      I think it was a major event within culture, i.e. as a social phenomenon, maybe in the same category as the cuban missile crisis, JFK assassination, Vietnam war, Watergate, and so forth. But did it significantly change how people lived and saw themselves within the universe? Did it create new religions or instigate re-evaluation of the current ones? Did it change the identity of humanity or make us rethink our values? I would say no to all of those. It was an important milestone, got some people to realize how small we all are, but I don't look at pre-1969 humanity and post-1969 and note some major difference. Sadly my general report would be that little has changed despite all the events that we might think ought to have changed us. If anything I'd say the Vietnam war had a massively greater impact on the American psyche than the moon landing did. I think that war really did change the character of American mentality, although not so for the human race as a whole, and in any case not in terms of a new spiritualism.



      Whatever. You've clearly got Dune and Herbertian grandeur on the mind. You know what though? At some point conversation about the merits of a story really mean nothing if we cannot compare them to our own lives. To say that the Moon shot and the Vietnam war did not radically affect human culture is the absolute silliest thing that I have heard from you, and I will happily admit, not much silliness comes out of your mouth.

      Always hoping we can keep it real.

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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby georgiedenbro » 11 Jan 2018 13:24

      Omphalos wrote:To say that the Moon shot and the Vietnam war did not radically affect human culture is the absolute silliest thing that I have heard from you


      If you disagree with my assessment that's fine. But we're also talking about what Frank's assessment was, right? So it's one thing to say you think those events affected humanity more than I think they did, but the real objective is to determine whether Frank thought so (whether or not he was objectively right). Since the text doesn't specify, that unfortunately means having to use my own reasoning to try to see things as he might have, but obviously that's not a direct line to the answer.

      But maybe you can explain why you think humanity was significantly changed after the moon landing. What - and I specifically mean in the sphere of religion or spiritualism - do you think the major changes were? What do people believe now that they didn't believe then as a result of space travel? I think the moon landing is an easier topic because we can probably say with confidence that although the U.S. made the landing it resonated with the whole planet, whereas I'm unconvinced that life in Western Europe, or South America, or Africa for instance, felt the impact of the Vietnam War like the U.S. did.
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Omphalos » 11 Jan 2018 17:35

      georgiedenbro wrote:
      Omphalos wrote:To say that the Moon shot and the Vietnam war did not radically affect human culture is the absolute silliest thing that I have heard from you


      If you disagree with my assessment that's fine. But we're also talking about what Frank's assessment was, right? So it's one thing to say you think those events affected humanity more than I think they did, but the real objective is to determine whether Frank thought so (whether or not he was objectively right). Since the text doesn't specify, that unfortunately means having to use my own reasoning to try to see things as he might have, but obviously that's not a direct line to the answer.

      But maybe you can explain why you think humanity was significantly changed after the moon landing. What - and I specifically mean in the sphere of religion or spiritualism - do you think the major changes were? What do people believe now that they didn't believe then as a result of space travel? I think the moon landing is an easier topic because we can probably say with confidence that although the U.S. made the landing it resonated with the whole planet, whereas I'm unconvinced that life in Western Europe, or South America, or Africa for instance, felt the impact of the Vietnam War like the U.S. did.


      why are you so limiting? Both of these led to enormous changes in the way that Americans see their place in the world, and the way that others see our roles. That alone is a huge cultural change. How can it not be? Not to ignore the changes in technology, democracy, free-market, etc that followed. these things changed the way that we live our lives. Huge cultural change, dude. Period. and I could care less if that change is less than people must have felt while Leto held them down, or during the scattering.

      You see now? silly.

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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby georgiedenbro » 12 Jan 2018 11:36

      Omphalos wrote:Both of these led to enormous changes in the way that Americans see their place in the world, and the way that others see our roles.


      I agree that Vietnam changed America's psyche considerably, but disagree that this significantly altered the mentality in other countries. It was more like PTSD and disillusionment then an opening up of new possibilities in terms of man's place in the universe. To oversimplify, I see it as a step backward, not forward. As for the moon landing, no question it was a worldwide event, more so than Vietnam. But my question is, on the ground, in living daily lives, how did this materially change anything? Did people change religions? Customs? Values? Treat each other differently?

      That alone is a huge cultural change. How can it not be? Not to ignore the changes in technology, democracy, free-market, etc that followed. these things changed the way that we live our lives. Huge cultural change, dude.


      That's really my question, what was this big change you allude to? I don't really see it. Not that there was no change, but we're talking about a passage in a book referring to a new age of mystical speculation, directly tied into the new hodgepodge of methods of space travel. Do you really think the nature of Democracy changed after 1969? If so, how? Not that I'm shutting down the possibility that you have a good point to make, but I don't think there's any reason to find such a conclusion obvious. I'd argue the assassination of JFK affected democracy more than the moon landing did, in terms of the character of the Presidents that followed. What about the free market? What changed after 1969? I'm not being sarcastic, btw, if you really think they changed significantly I wouldn't mind hearing why you think so. As for the changes in technology, I think they were coming with or without the moon landing. Many people argue that NASA space efforts were a boondoggle, technically speaking, and that it was more about beating the Soviets than doing anything scientific.

      Now, I wasn't alive pre-1969 so I can't speak from experience about whether my life changed after that. But if I'm going to look at culture worldwide I'd say that the era after 1969, if anything, veered steeply towards religion coming under fire and spiritualism becoming seen as something archaic. The American South rallied during the evangelical surge, but the North went in the opposite direction, as did Europe in terms of moving away from religion and mysticism being part of everyday life. The one exception would be the New Age movement, which arguably was a resurgence of an old (pagan) belief and astrology, rather than a new area of thought triggered by new possibilities. I'm not very knowledgeable about Asian religion in everyday life so I can't really contribute anything about how their religious/spiritual lives changed post 1969. Overall, though, the landscape now seems considerably more restrictive in regards to people being open to mysticism or religion, than it was 50 years ago.'
      '
      But I'd be happy to hear if your experience was different. As as sci-fi fan I'd love to be able to believe that people have been changing as a result of thoughts about space travel.
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Serkanner » 13 Jan 2018 04:34

      My life changed dramaticly in 1969. One moment I am in a womb, the next in a cold harsh winter world; just in time to witness the first landing of a man on the moon. :mrgreen:
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Omphalos » 15 Jan 2018 14:57

      georgiedenbro wrote:But I'd be happy to hear if your experience was different. As as sci-fi fan I'd love to be able to believe that people have been changing as a result of thoughts about space travel.


      My first, last, and best impulse as a litigator, is to never argue the obvious. Whoever is judging the controversy will get it. And its just boring. I have also noticed that the clueless will in short order come to understand the truth of things by virtue of the fact of the controversy. So I wont lose hope for you. I'll just point out that some things speak for themselves. Good luck.

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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby pcqypcqy » 15 Jan 2018 21:43

      Nah, I'm with georgie. Moon landing was a big social thing, but I can't discern a major difference in the cultures I'm familiar with before/after. A marvellous engineering feat though it was, it was just something that we did.

      I like Georgie's line of reasoning too, when FH talks about cultural changes (specifically in the context of that quote earlier), you get the feeling that he's talking about huge, singularity-like events. The moon landing was not that.

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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Freakzilla » 16 Jan 2018 07:10

      So what would cause this great change, cultural or otherwise? Moon base? Mars Colony? Asteroid Colony? Generation ship to another star? I only mentioned the moon landing as the beginning of mankind's movement though deep space for a point of reference. It doesn't in itself have to be a earthshaking cultural revolution.
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby georgiedenbro » 16 Jan 2018 11:48

      Freakzilla wrote:So what would cause this great change, cultural or otherwise? Moon base? Mars Colony? Asteroid Colony? Generation ship to another star? I only mentioned the moon landing as the beginning of mankind's movement though deep space for a point of reference. It doesn't in itself have to be a earthshaking cultural revolution.


      Yeah, that's the thing, and it goes back to your question about what "the beginning" of 110 centuries is. I think we could certainly find ourselves, in 500 years, deciding that the moon landing was 'the start of it all' even though in the short term we (or I) can't see any significant changes yet. It was certainly a milestone, and one that will never be forgotten, and is as good as any single event to mark as the start of our journey through space. So I think that I definitely agree with Omph that maybe at some point in the future the 'beginning' of the 110 centuries might well be seen as starting at 1969, even though right now I don't discern much impact from it. Even if it takes us another 1,000 years before we have viable interstellar travel, we may still see fit at that time (or 10,000 later) to broadly categorize the 'space age' (as it used to be called) as starting with moon runs.

      I guess i was interpreting our discussion as being about when the real material changes to human culture will begin to happen as a result of new methods of space travel. But if we're talking about, far in the future, when they will decide was the historical moment when 'it started' then maybe they will choose the moon landing, yeah. Perhaps we weren't exactly on the same page, Omph?
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      Re: any idea when in earths history dune falls?

      Postby Omphalos » 16 Jan 2018 12:30

      Freakzilla wrote:So what would cause this great change, cultural or otherwise? Moon base? Mars Colony? Asteroid Colony? Generation ship to another star? I only mentioned the moon landing as the beginning of mankind's movement though deep space for a point of reference. It doesn't in itself have to be a earthshaking cultural revolution.


      Are you fucking kidding me too? BTW, the cultural influence exists now. I do not have to be a time traveler to get it.

      EDIT: Look, maybe I need to be crystal clear here, because I cannot believe that two otherwise intelligent persons such as yourselves aren't getting it. All I am saying is that the moon landing had significant cultural effects. Are the two of you honestly debating that point?


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